As of October 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?” at 68% YES with $59K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 68% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 4?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 33c vs market 68c. BUY NO at 68c — models see 35c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 66c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 58c | 58% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 68c | 71% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 66c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (58–75c vs 32c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 67c — market prices it at 32c. 35-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet sits entirely on the NO side with entries at 8c, positioning it as the sole smart-money signal in this market and implying skepticism toward a sustained ceasefire. With no YES entries recorded, there is no countervailing informed flow to validate the 68c price, so the dominant NO positioning leans directionally bearish on YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | NO | $2.0K | +300% |
All tracked YES exposure is underwater at the 68c mark, while NO positions entered at 8c are deep in profit, creating strong incentive for NO holders to hold or add rather than exit. The absence of profitable YES holders removes a natural source of selling pressure but also signals weak conviction behind the 68c level, leaving support dependent on new buyers rather than existing winners.
Polymarket prices YES at 68c with $59K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 33c. Significant 35-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68c | $59K |
| Our Model | 33c | — |