Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES). Trump says Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.

What’s Happening

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a near halt on Thursday, July 9, 2026, as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes disrupted one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes. Ship-tracking data showed only a small number of vessels signaling transit along the Iran-controlled route, while the U.S.-supported Omani corridor sat empty of observable traffic. Analysts noted that some oil tankers have been sailing through with their transponders switched off to lower the risk of attack by Iranian forces, meaning official counts likely understate real movement. The question of whether 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 hinges on whether such disruptions prove temporary or sustained. [World Oil, Jul 09]

Context matters here: more than 500 ships have passed through the strait since the June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, according to a tally published on July 9, though many vessels remained stuck awaiting safe passage. On July 5, tracking recorded 16 outbound vessels transiting Hormuz, alongside signs of a new loading cycle opening at Kharg Island as dark VLCC-class tankers reoccupied crude terminals. Those figures suggest that on calmer days, daily transit counts can climb well toward the level needed for 30 ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026. [Al Jazeera, Jul 09]

Diplomatic pressure is building to restore normal flows. On July 10, U.S. officials said Washington is demanding Iran publicly commit to halting attacks on ships and keeping all lanes open. Two days later, on July 12, President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic, even as both sides continued trading attacks that raised safety concerns. With cargo ships already anchoring near the strait off Khor Fakkan, any durable de-escalation could quickly lift daily transit volumes; a breakdown in the ceasefire would push them back toward the July 9 standstill. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $226K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 94c YES with $226K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.