Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Few vessels are crossing after Iran reversed course on reopening the vital waterway and ships came under attack.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 currently reflects an 8% probability of a "Yes" outcome, a stark indicator of the severe disruption gripping the vital waterway. According to data from shipping analytics firm Kpler, only three ships crossed the strait on Monday, April 20, 2026, following Iran's reversal of a prior decision to reopen the passage. This near-halt in traffic came after a brief spike on Saturday, April 18, when more than 20 vessels transited—the highest single-day count since March 1—after Iran declared the strait open under a fragile cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. However, within 24 hours, Iran reversed course, and ships reportedly came under attack, plunging traffic back to minimal levels and making the target of 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 appear highly unlikely. [NYT, Apr 20] [Reuters, Apr 20]

The significance of this traffic collapse extends beyond the immediate numbers, as the Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Since the end of February 2026, hundreds of tankers and other vessels have been stranded in the Middle East Gulf, unable to cross. Shipping executives at the FT Commodities Global Summit on Wednesday, April 22, noted that Asian shipowners—who exhibit a greater risk tolerance—may soon begin sailing through the strait, though transits so far have been limited to government-owned vessels and a handful of cruise ships. For instance, five cruise ships, including the MSC Euribia, successfully transited the strait in a two-day passage starting April 18, becoming the first such vessels to do so since the conflict began. These isolated crossings, however, remain far below the volume needed to reach 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30, underscoring the persistent risk and uncertainty for commercial shipping. [Marine News Magazine, Apr 22] [Cruise Industry News, Apr 18]

Looking ahead, the immediate outlook for a return to normal traffic volumes remains bleak, with additional complications emerging. Greek maritime risk management firm MARISKS warned on Monday, April 21, that fraudulent messages promising safe passage through the strait in exchange for cryptocurrency have been sent to shipping companies with stranded vessels. These scams, claiming to represent Iranian authorities, add a layer of operational chaos to an already dangerous environment. The combination of military risk, diplomatic volatility, and now fraud makes it improbable that daily transits will surge to 60 before the April 30 deadline. The market's 92% probability of a "No" outcome reflects the consensus that, despite the brief uptick on April 18, the fundamental barriers to mass transit—including the lack of a stable cease-fire and credible security guarantees—remain unresolved. [Insurance Journal, Apr 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $257K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $257K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.