Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Trump's refusal to return to war with Iran will 'cost him dearly', Saudi expert claims.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump's late-May push to broaden the Abraham Accords has produced no public commitments from targeted Arab or Muslim-majority states, according to reporting on May 29, 2026. Trump demanded earlier that week that several Gulf and Muslim nations sign on to the normalization framework in exchange for U.S. mediation to end the war with Iran. NBC News reported that more than half of the countries Trump named by name already maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, and that there was "almost no response" from the governments cited. Israeli analyst Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies called the linkage between an Iran deal and normalization "bizarre," asking what the connection between the two tracks was. [NBC News, May 29]

Saudi analyst Mubarak al-Ati told Jerusalem Post on May 29 that the United States' diminished international standing has prevented Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States from treating Trump's demand that a new country join the abraham accords as a serious diplomatic ask, describing Trump as a "paper tiger" whose refusal to return to war with Iran will "cost him dearly." Separately, Middle East Eye reported the same day that Pakistan is unlikely to sign on, citing the country's founding 1947 policy on Palestine, religious sentiment, and a contested domestic political landscape that raises the cost of normalization higher than for Arab states. The Hill characterized the initiative as a "Hail Mary" that had "crashed and burned." [Jerusalem Post, May 29]

The market resolves on June 30, 2026, leaving roughly four weeks for any new state to formally accede. No government has publicly indicated intent to sign during the window, and the countries most frequently named — including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Pakistan — have either issued no response or signaled resistance. Trump's framing of normalization as conditional on an Iran ceasefire drew pushback from U.S. allies, who told NBC News they viewed the package demand as disconnected from the Iran negotiation track. For a new country join the abraham accords before the deadline, a Gulf or Muslim-majority state would need to complete a formal diplomatic process within weeks against the current backdrop of Gaza-related domestic constraints. [Middle East Eye, May 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.