AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 46c |
30%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
30%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 20c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 45c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet holds YES positions exclusively at 42c, suggesting a confident, early accumulation by a smart money participant. Their uniform entry price signals a deliberate bet on Zverev's 2026 US Open chances, likely based on favorable draw or form projections, and their lack of NO exposure implies they see limited downside risk at current levels.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.7K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,433 on $1.7K capital deployed (avg +140.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 46c | $2.5M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 45c | — | × missed |