Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES). Federal forecasters announced that the current El Niño could rank among the strongest events in the historical record going back to 1950.

What’s Happening

The question of whether any category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in 2026 remains open as the Atlantic season heads toward its peak. On Monday, July 6, Super Typhoon Bavi — the equivalent of a Category 5 storm — passed directly over Rota, an island of roughly 2,000 people in the Northern Mariana Islands, about 50 miles north of Guam and its key US military installations, including Andersen Air Force Base. Bavi was the second massive storm to strike the US Pacific territories since April. Pacific typhoons do not count as Atlantic hurricane landfalls, but the event underscored the intensity of tropical systems active across US-governed regions this year. [CNN, Jul 06]

The Atlantic outlook has shifted sharply because of a strengthening El Niño. On July 9, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said there is an 81% chance of a "very strong" El Niño by fall, potentially ranking among the strongest events in the record dating to 1950. El Niño typically increases upper-level winds that suppress Atlantic hurricane development. Reflecting that, Colorado State University updated its forecast to call for a "well below-normal" season, and reduced the chance of a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville, Texas, to the Florida Panhandle. The revision lowers the statistical risk that any category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in the remaining months of 2026. [Houston Chronicle, Jul 09]

Weather hazards inland persisted regardless of the tropical outlook: following a record-setting holiday-weekend heat wave, more than 61 million Americans faced flash-flood risk in early July. Suppressed odds do not eliminate the possibility that any category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in 2026, as single intense storms can still form even in below-normal seasons. The Atlantic season runs through November 30, with the historically busiest stretch spanning August through October. Forecasters will continue monitoring whether the El Niño peak fully materializes and how it shapes late-season activity across the Gulf and Atlantic basins. [USA Today, Jul 09]

Traded on Polymarket — $334K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 22c YES with $334K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.