Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will Arsenal win a trophy this season. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO). “It is not done.” Those were the words of Declan Rice to his Arsenal team-mates at the end of their 2-1 defeat by Manchester City on Sunday.
The probability that Arsenal will win a trophy this season stands at 58% on prediction markets, reflecting a tense title race that shifted dramatically on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Manchester City defeated Arsenal 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium, cutting the Gunners' lead at the top of the Premier League to just three points. Crucially, City hold a game in hand against 19th-placed Burnley on Wednesday, meaning they could leapfrog Arsenal on goal difference. Despite the loss, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta stated his players are “more convinced” than ever that they can win the title, while midfielder Declan Rice declared “It is not done” after the match. The defeat was only the fourth time this season that Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze started together, highlighting a creative partnership Arsenal hopes will drive their campaign. [Yahoo Sports, Apr 20] [Houston Chronicle, Apr 19]
The outcome of the arsenal win a trophy this season question hinges on the remaining five matches of the campaign, with Arsenal’s final fixture away to Crystal Palace. Manchester City, unbeaten in the league since January 17, are now widely viewed as favorites by pundits, including former player Micah Richards, who shifted his prediction after City’s victory. Erling Haaland, who scored the winning goal, sent a message to the camera after the match, while City fans displayed a banner reading “Panic on the streets of London.” The result puts the fate of the trophy in City’s hands, but Arsenal still control their own destiny if they win all remaining games. The arsenal win a trophy this season probability reflects the narrow margin between the two clubs, with City’s game in hand being the decisive factor. [Premier League, Apr 20] [CNN, Apr 20]
Looking ahead, the immediate focus is on City’s midweek match against Burnley, which could see them move top of the table for the first time in weeks. Arsenal’s next fixture is against a lower-table opponent, giving them a chance to regain momentum. Arteta’s confidence, despite the setback, suggests the squad remains united, but the margin for error is now razor-thin. The arsenal win a trophy this season market will likely shift again based on Wednesday’s result. With both teams facing challenging run-ins, including potential cup competitions, the probability of Arsenal lifting silverware remains above even odds, but the path has narrowed significantly. [Washington Post, Apr 19]
Polymarket prices this at 58c YES with $210K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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