Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Israel's genocide in Gaza.

What’s Happening

US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Gulf states to join the Abraham Accords during a cabinet meeting on May 27, 2026, suggesting that any deal with Tehran to end the war with Iran would hinge on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and other regional nations normalizing ties with Israel. Trump told reporters, "I'm not sure we should make the deal if they don't… join the Abraham Accords," tying the broader regional security framework to expansion of the 2020 normalization pact originally signed by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Azerbaijan, a Shia-majority but secular state with longstanding defense ties to Israel, was not specifically named in Trump's expansion demand, though analysts have repeatedly cited Baku as a likely candidate for any future accession round. [NYT, May 28]

Regional response to the demand has been notably cold. Two Gulf-affairs experts told the Jerusalem Post that Arab capitals view Trump's linkage as "premature and disconnected" from regional realities, with Saudi analyst Mubarak al-Ati characterizing the US president as a "paper tiger" whose declining international standing has emboldened Gulf states to dismiss the pressure. Middle East Eye reported on May 29 that Pakistan — frequently grouped with potential accession candidates — will almost certainly refuse, citing a national consensus rooted in its 1947 founding and ongoing reaction to the Gaza conflict. The cold reception across the broader Muslim world reduces the political incentive for Baku to break ranks and unilaterally join the Abraham Accords ahead of larger Gulf players. [Jerusalem Post, May 29]

The path forward depends largely on whether the Iran negotiation framework holds and whether Saudi Arabia moves first, given its weight as "the center of Islam," as Senator Lindsey Graham noted on Fox News on May 28. Without a Saudi-led breakthrough, smaller candidates including Azerbaijan are unlikely to announce accession before the January 1, 2027 deadline. Diplomatic observers note that any Azerbaijan-Israel formalization would also need to navigate Baku's strategic relationship with Iran, its immediate southern neighbor, making the seven-month window a tight runway for a politically sensitive announcement absent a broader regional cascade. [Daily Beast, May 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.