Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as likely (82% YES). Modric now equals Argentina striker Lionel Messi in caps.

What’s Happening

Croatia enter the 2026 FIFA World Cup drawn into Group L alongside England, Ghana, and Panama, marking the first time since 1982 that the tournament has featured a Group L. The Vatreni open their campaign against England at Dallas Stadium in a marquee European fixture, headlining the group's broadcast schedule across free-to-air and premium platforms. Croatia arrive ranked among the consistent overperformers in recent tournament cycles, having reached the World Cup semi-finals twice in the last two editions, including their silver-medal finish at the 2018 World Cup. [Sporting News, Jun 11]

Captain Luka Modric headlines the squad, having just equalled Argentina's Lionel Messi on international caps, trailing only Cristiano Ronaldo (227) and Bader Al-Mutawa on the all-time list. The expanded 48-team format divides sides into 12 groups of four, with the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers progressing to a 32-team knockout round — a structural change that materially raises the floor for whether Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the FIFA World Cup. The tournament runs from June 11 to July 19, 2026, hosted jointly by Canada, the United States, and Mexico, with reigning champions Argentina defending the title. [FOX Sports, Jun 6]

Group L's competitive hierarchy places England as the favourite, with Croatia positioned as the clear second seed against Ghana and Panama — a draw widely viewed as navigable given the path required for Croatia to advance to the knockout stages at the FIFA World Cup under the new tiebreaker rules covering points, goal difference, and head-to-head record. Croatia's opener against England carries the heaviest weight, as a result there can swing third-place qualification math across the wider 12-group table. With Modric anchoring midfield in what is expected to be his final World Cup appearance and the broadened knockout bracket admitting 32 teams rather than 16, the standings margin for error is wider than in any prior edition. [Goal, Jun 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 82c YES.