Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June. Currently, markets are divided (46% YES, 54% NO). Global oil stocks could fall by 900 million bbl even if ceasefire is extended, Citi says.

What’s Happening

Traders are closely watching the probability that crude oil (CL) hit (high) $115 by end of June, currently sitting at 46% as of late April, amid a volatile geopolitical landscape. The trigger for the recent price surge is the ongoing disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil supply. Citi analysts outlined three scenarios on April 21, with their worst-case projection seeing oil prices soar to $130 a barrel by the end of June if flows remain blocked. In their best-case scenario, a ceasefire extension signed this week would allow gradual resumption of flows through May, reaching pre-disruption levels by the end of June, which would likely cap prices below the $115 threshold. [CNBC, Apr 21]

The fundamental supply outlook adds significant weight to the bullish case for crude oil (CL) hit (high) $115 by end of June. Even under a relatively optimistic ceasefire extension, Citi researchers warned on April 20 that global crude and product inventories could decline by roughly 900 million barrels by the end of June, reaching their lowest levels in eight years. This projected drawdown underscores the severity of the supply deficit, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption has already removed millions of barrels per day from the market. Simultaneously, a 30-nation military coalition led by the UK and France is pushing to reopen the strait, a development reported on April 22 that introduces a countervailing force that could ease supply fears and lower the probability of hitting the $115 target. [Kitco, Apr 20] [OilPrice.com, Apr 22]

Looking ahead, the path for crude oil (CL) hit (high) $115 by end of June hinges on the interplay between military intervention and diplomatic outcomes. JPMorgan stated on April 24 that oil prices still have further to rise, while Standard Chartered recently pegged a new equilibrium price at $95 per barrel, suggesting that even a resolution might leave prices elevated. The market is now awaiting the outcome of ceasefire talks this week and the effectiveness of the naval operation to restore Strait of Hormuz flows. If the military push succeeds quickly, supply could normalize, reducing the probability of a spike to $115. Conversely, any failure or delay in reopening the strait, combined with the projected inventory collapse, would strongly support the bullish scenario. [OilPrice.com, Apr 24] [OilPrice.com, Apr 23]

Traded on Polymarket — $416K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 46c YES with $416K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.