AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 83c, implying conviction the move was already unlikely well before expiry compression, and they have ridden it nearly to resolution. The absence of any YES entries from tracked wallets signals the $115 ceiling is treated as structurally out of reach with limited June trading days remaining.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $4.0K | +13% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$810 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +20.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |