Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Brent Crude Oil $ 104.4 / bbl -4.21%.
WTI crude (CL=F) settled at $84.88 per barrel on June 12, 2026, down 3.23% on the session, while Brent fell to $87.33, marking a sharp retreat from earlier conflict-driven highs. Futures on Brent briefly dipped below $80 per barrel on Tuesday, June 16 — touching $79.96 — for the first time since March 3, just days after the Iran war began. The question of whether crude oil (CL) hit (high) $95 by end of June has narrowed sharply as WTI would need to rally roughly $10 per barrel in under two weeks to cross the threshold, a move not currently supported by spot momentum. [Yahoo Finance, Jun 16]
The June price action sits against a volatile backdrop tied to the Iran war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. WTI crude briefly climbed toward $120 per barrel in the early weeks of the conflict before easing. A renewed spike occurred on June 11, when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pushing WTI to $91.16 (+1.26%) and Brent to $94.08 (+1.05%) intraday — the closest crude oil (CL) hit (high) $95 by end of June scenario has come to materializing this cycle. Prices subsequently retraced as shipping flows partially resumed and diplomatic channels reopened. [OilPrice, Jun 11]
ICIS projects Brent to average $89 per barrel in June before rising to $95 per barrel in July under its "Extended" scenario assuming the conflict ends in June 2026 and the Strait reopens. The forecast then sees Brent easing to $80 by January 2027 and $74 by mid-2027 as oversupply reasserts itself. For crude oil (CL) hit (high) $95 by end of June to resolve YES, WTI — which historically trades a $2-3 discount to Brent — would require a renewed Hormuz disruption or fresh escalation before the June 30 contract settlement. Without such a catalyst, the spread between current spot levels and the $95 trigger remains structurally wide. [ICIS, Jun 16]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($77K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.
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