Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

What’s Happening

WTI Crude settled at $89.83 on May 6, down 12.16% on the session after President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz Escort Plan, while Brent dropped 10.50% to $98.33. Both benchmarks remain well above the threshold required for crude oil (CL) hit (low) $60 by end of June to resolve YES, with Brent having peaked at $126 in April during the Iran war and now trading near $100. U.S. retail gasoline averaged above $4.50 per gallon in early May, a near four-year high reflecting elevated wholesale crude. [OilPrice, May 6]

Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil inventories could fall to 98 days of global demand by end of May 2026, the lowest level in eight years, citing continued disruptions to Middle Eastern flows. JPMorgan said in a May 11 note that Brent would likely remain in the low-$100s through much of 2026 even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, with summer demand and OECD stock draws pushing inventories toward operational stress by August. The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook flagged ongoing supply constraints and elevated crude prices through 2027. [Oil & Gas 360, May 11]

For crude oil (CL) hit (low) $60 by end of June to resolve YES, WTI would need to fall roughly 33% from $89.83 within approximately seven weeks, a move not currently supported by inventory data or futures structure. Analysts cited by Fortune on May 12 described the futures curve as "heavily suppressed" relative to the physical shortage, suggesting bearish positioning is concentrated rather than fundamental. A confirmed Hormuz reopening, an Iran ceasefire announcement, or coordinated SPR releases would be the primary catalysts capable of pushing crude oil (CL) hit (low) $60 by end of June into play before resolution. [Fortune, May 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $296K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 7c YES with $296K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.