Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 15%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (15% YES). Oil falls to near two-month lows as Trump calls off threatened strikes on Iran.

What’s Happening

WTI crude settled at $84.88 per barrel on Friday, June 12, 2026, falling 3.23% to its lowest level in nearly two months after U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled threatened strikes on Iran. Brent crude dropped 3.37% to $87.33, deepening weekly losses as a Western source told Reuters that a memorandum between Washington and Tehran to halt the Gulf war could be signed as soon as Sunday. The de-escalation marks a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when oil climbed roughly 1% after U.S. strikes followed the downing of a military helicopter, briefly tightening supply expectations before diplomacy regained the upper hand. [Kitco, Jun 12]

The question of whether crude oil (CL) hit (low) $70 by end of June hinges on whether prices can shed another $15 per barrel in roughly two weeks — a move that would require sustained downside momentum well beyond the current diplomatic catalyst. WTI has been trading in a downward sloping channel since mid-May, with WSJ market commentary noting WTI settled down 2.6% at $87.71 on June 11 before Friday's further leg lower. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, near-closed since the war began, would restore Persian Gulf tanker flows and add meaningful barrels to global supply, though the U.S. naval blockade remains in force until a final deal is signed. [WSJ, Jun 11]

Whether crude oil (CL) hit (low) $70 by end of June depends on the pace of the U.S.-Iran framework and the speed of any supply normalization through Hormuz. OilPrice.com flagged the market as "weeks from a breaking point" on June 12, with WTI Midland at $84.89 and Light Sour Blend at $79.96 signaling regional differentials already breaking below the headline benchmark. Equity markets responded positively, with U.S. stocks rising Friday on the 3.4% Brent decline and SpaceX's Wall Street debut. Traders are watching Sunday's potential memorandum signing, U.S. inventory data, and any renewed escalation risk — a collapsed deal would likely reverse the current trajectory before the June 30 deadline. [OilPrice.com, Jun 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $972K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 18c YES with $972K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.