Prediction markets put the probability at 84%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as likely (84% YES). Oil falls to near two-month lows as Trump calls off threatened strikes on Iran.
Crude oil futures slid to their lowest levels in nearly two months on Friday, June 12, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled planned new strikes on Iran, easing fears of further escalation in the Gulf. WTI Crude fell 3.23% to $84.88 a barrel, while Brent dropped 3.37% to $87.33. A memorandum between the United States and Iran to halt hostilities could be signed as soon as Sunday, June 14, a Western source told Reuters, with the U.S. naval blockade remaining in force until a deal is finalized. The de-escalation sharply altered the risk premium that had supported prices following tit-for-tat attacks earlier in the week. [Kitco, Jun 12]
The trajectory matters because the question of whether crude oil (CL) hit (low) $80 by end of June hinges on roughly two weeks of trading and an additional ~$5 per barrel decline from current WTI levels. Analysts at WSJ Market Talk noted that "crude oil has been trading in a downward sloping channel since the middle of May", with WTI settling down 2.6% at $87.71 on June 11 before Friday's further leg lower. U.S. strikes launched on June 10 had briefly pushed prices up about 1% from a seven-week low, supported by a large draw in U.S. crude inventories, before the diplomatic pivot reversed the move. [WSJ, Jun 11]
Looking ahead, the path for crude oil (CL) to hit (low) $80 by end of June depends on whether the U.S.-Iran memorandum is signed and whether the naval blockade is lifted on schedule. OilPrice.com flagged that the market "could be weeks from a breaking point", with WTI Midland at $84.89 and Sweet Crude at $81.96 already trading near the threshold. A successful diplomatic resolution would likely remove the remaining geopolitical premium, while any breakdown in talks or renewed Iranian retaliation could rapidly reprice the curve higher. Traders are watching Sunday's signing window and weekly U.S. inventory data as the next catalysts. [OilPrice, Jun 12]
Polymarket prices this at 84c YES with $842K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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