Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). The price of international Brent crude oil has risen more than 10% since Sunday to levels not seen since June.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by December 31 currently shows a 12% probability of a "YES" outcome, reflecting significant skepticism among traders despite recent geopolitical turmoil. This cautious outlook persists even as Brent crude surged to $87 per barrel on July 14, 2026, following the latest U.S. military strikes on Iran and threats of a looming blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike, representing a 10% increase since the prior Sunday, marked the first time since June that Brent traded at that level, though prices later pulled back after President Donald Trump announced he was dropping a proposed "reimbursement fee" for the strait, which had been viewed as a potential breach of international norms. [NBC News, Jul 14]

The low probability that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by December 31 is further supported by fundamental supply-side developments. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on July 8, 2026 that global oil production is expected to return to levels seen before the Iran conflict by the end of 2026, with OPEC+ already agreeing to a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day. This projection comes despite ongoing disruptions in Middle Eastern output and supply chain challenges in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories posted an unexpected build that same week, rising by 3 million barrels—the first increase in 11 weeks—as domestic production edged up by 50,000 barrels per day to nearly 13.9 million barrels per day, while imports increased and exports fell. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 8] [WSJ, Jul 8]

Looking ahead, the path for crude oil to reach a new all-time high by December 31 hinges on whether renewed Iran-U.S. tensions escalate further or de-escalate. On July 8, 2026, Brent crude rallied 3% to $74 per barrel after reports of Iran attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by U.S. strikes on Iran and the Treasury Department revoking authorization for Iranian oil sales. By July 13, 2026, Brent had climbed to $80.36 per barrel, a 5.72% gain, while WTI crude reached $75.45, up 5.66%. Analysts note that while renewed conflict could keep fuel prices elevated, the EIA's production recovery forecast and the unexpected inventory build suggest that supply-side pressures may be temporary, making a sustained rally to record levels—above the current all-time high of approximately $147 per barrel set in 2008—a long-shot bet. [Mining.com.au, Jul 8] [OilPrice.com, Jul 13]

Traded on Polymarket — $387K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $387K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.