Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO
95c
YES
5c
As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $54K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will donald trump attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31, 2026?.
On this market: 6/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 87% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 95c. 5-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet holds only NO entries at 89c, signaling conviction that no meeting will occur. This one-sided positioning, with no YES entries recorded, suggests informed money sees the diplomatic meeting as highly unlikely and is comfortable locking in a high-probability NO outcome.
With YES at 5c, all NO positions entered at 89c are profitable, while no YES holder is in the money. The absence of profitable YES entries and the 84c spread between sides indicate strong downside pressure, with the 5c price reflecting near-zero implied probability of a Trump-Iran diplomatic meeting by the deadline.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 5c YES — $54K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $54K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $54K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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