Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO). After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S.

What’s Happening

The fate of FISA Section 702 reauthorization becoming law this year remains uncertain as Congress faces a critical April 30 deadline, with the current probability standing at 56% in favor of passage. After two failed House votes last week to extend the surveillance powers for 18 months without changes, lawmakers instead passed a temporary 10-day reauthorization to buy time. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., introduced a new bill on Thursday, April 24, proposing a three-year extension that includes language barring officials from using Section 702 to target Americans. The program, which allows warrantless surveillance of foreign nationals abroad, has become a flashpoint between national security hawks and privacy advocates, with the outcome directly determining whether FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year or expires. [CyberScoop, Apr 24]

The legislative scramble underscores deep divisions within the House GOP, as Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said on Wednesday, April 22, that lawmakers are working toward a "final resolution" on extending Section 702. House GOP leaders have been circulating the text of a three-year reauthorization bill among members, according to three people granted anonymity to speak freely. The urgency stems from the fact that the spy powers will expire on April 30 unless Congress acts, making the question of whether FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year a matter of days. Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, has been seeking a bipartisan deal while Republicans remain divided over privacy protections and warrant requirements. [NPR, Apr 24]

The stakes are high for national security agencies, which rely on Section 702 to collect foreign intelligence without individual warrants, though critics argue it enables warrantless searches of Americans' communications incidentally collected. A letter from half a dozen groups in Connecticut has urged lawmakers to reject the latest proposal, citing privacy concerns. With the House aiming to clinch a deal as early as Friday, April 24, according to Majority Leader Scalise, the next steps involve floor votes and potential Senate consideration. The outcome will determine whether FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year, with the 56% probability reflecting the tight timeline and partisan gridlock. [Bloomberg Law News, Apr 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 58c YES.