Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). Image 7: An anomaly in global sea level rise is explained by deep ocean heating.

What’s Happening

A prediction market currently assigns a 34% probability to the scenario that the global temperature increase will be between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026, with a 66% likelihood that temperatures will fall outside that narrow band. This specific threshold reflects a period of heightened climate uncertainty, as recent scientific assessments indicate that global temperatures are trending toward record levels. The World Meteorological Organization and EU scientists reported that 2025 was one of Europe's warmest years on record, marked by intense heat waves, widespread drought, and significant glacier shrinkage, while warning that a major El Niño event is expected to push global temperatures even higher in the coming months. The narrowness of the 1.10ºC to 1.14ºC range suggests that market participants are closely watching whether the planet will stabilize within this increment or breach it entirely as warming accelerates. [Politico, Apr 29]

The significance of this prediction lies in its timing, as April 2026 coincides with the anticipated peak of the developing El Niño event, which typically amplifies global average temperatures. A separate study published this week by researchers at the Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies (LEGOS) in Toulouse found that deep ocean heating below 2,000 meters has been a major driver of sea level rise since 2016, accounting for a previously unexplained anomaly in the global mean sea level budget. This deep-ocean heat absorption, which has been "almost closed" in the budget calculations, suggests that the climate system is storing more energy than surface measurements alone capture, potentially influencing whether the global temperature increase lands within the 1.10ºC to 1.14ºC bracket or overshoots it. The interaction between surface warming from El Niño and deep-ocean heat redistribution creates a complex dynamic that forecasters are struggling to model precisely. [Phys, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the outcome of this prediction will depend on how the El Niño event evolves over the next several months and whether natural variability can offset the underlying warming trend. While local weather reports from April 29, 2026 show frost and freeze alerts in parts of the U.S. Midwest, with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s Fahrenheit, these regional cold snaps do not contradict the global average trend, which is driven by vast ocean and tropical temperature readings. Meanwhile, corporate responses to climate risk continue to intensify, as exemplified by battery manufacturer AESC receiving a CDP Climate Change A- rating for 2025, the highest among global lithium battery manufacturers. The 34% probability for the global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April reflects a market view that the planet is more likely to exceed this range than to remain within it, given the compounding effects of El Niño and long-term greenhouse gas accumulation. [CBS News, Apr 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $57K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 34c YES.