Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Image 7: An anomaly in global sea level rise is explained by deep ocean heating.

What’s Happening

A prediction market currently assigns an 8% probability to the scenario that the global average temperature increase will fall between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026, with a 92% probability against that outcome. This narrow temperature band sits just above the 1.2ºC threshold that has become a key benchmark in climate monitoring. The low probability reflects the difficulty of forecasting such a precise monthly anomaly, especially as climate models show significant variability driven by short-term natural cycles. The market's assessment comes amid a backdrop of record-breaking warmth in 2025, when Europe experienced one of its hottest years on record, marked by intense heat waves, widespread drought, and significant glacier shrinkage according to the World Meteorological Organization and EU scientists. [Politico, Apr 29]

The difficulty in predicting a global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April is compounded by emerging scientific findings about deep-ocean heat storage. Researchers led by Anny Cazenave at the Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies in Toulouse, France, have found that accounting for heat absorbed in the deep ocean below 2,000 meters has allowed the global mean sea level budget to be "almost closed" since 2016. This deep-ocean warming acts as a buffer that can delay the full expression of atmospheric temperature increases, potentially making it harder for monthly averages to reach specific narrow bands like the one targeted by this market. The research underscores how much of the Earth's excess heat is being stored beneath the surface rather than immediately manifesting in atmospheric readings. [Phys, Apr 28]

Looking ahead to April 2026, the primary variable that could shift the probability of a global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April is the anticipated development of a major El Niño event. Scientists have warned that the world is bracing for such an event, which typically raises global temperatures by releasing heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. However, short-term weather patterns can obscure these larger trends; for instance, local forecasts for late April 2026 in parts of the United States show frost and freeze alerts with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s, demonstrating that regional cold snaps can occur even during a warming global trend. The natural gas storage report from the EIA as of April 24, 2026 showed inventories at 2,142 Bcf, a net increase of 79 Bcf from the previous week, indicating that energy markets are still responding to seasonal cooling demand. [CBS News, Apr 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.