Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Sources downplay reported breakthrough in Hamas disarmament talks | The Times of Israel.

What’s Happening

Negotiations in Cairo aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire in Gaza have stalled, with the demand that Hamas agree to disarm remaining the primary obstacle. Palestinian sources told AFP on June 10, 2026 that talks between mediators and Palestinian factions are continuing "in a context of clearly differing visions," and that the issue of weapons is the only point of contention. The Board of Peace (BoP), a council overseeing post-war governance, announced on June 10 that it would no longer wait for a formal response from Hamas regarding disarmament, calling the delay a "serious breach of the agreement." This impasse has led to a low probability—currently 6%—that Hamas agree to disarm by the June 30 deadline, according to market data. [Times of Israel, Jun 10]

The diplomatic deadlock is further complicated by the approaching Israeli elections, expected in the fall of 2026. Mideast diplomats told The Times of Israel on June 12 that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cooperation with a U.S.-backed plan is diminishing as campaigning ramps up, and that he may renew military operations. A U.S. official insisted that Israel could be brought on board if Hamas agree to disarm first, but mediators are "glum" about a breakthrough before the vote. Reports on June 11 of a potential draft proposal in Cairo were quickly downplayed by sources familiar with the talks, who said neither Washington nor Israel had received official notice of any decision. The political calendar is thus narrowing the window for a deal, with the June 30 deadline now less than three weeks away. [Times of Israel, Jun 12]

Looking ahead, the immediate next steps hinge on whether Hamas will respond to the disarmament proposal or whether mediators will shift focus to short-term initiatives in areas not under the group’s control. The BoP has stated it will continue advancing such projects without waiting for Hamas, signaling a potential fragmentation of the ceasefire framework. Meanwhile, the 94% probability that Hamas will not disarm by June 30 reflects the entrenched positions on both sides, with the terror group refusing to hand over weapons and Israel demanding full demilitarization as a condition for a permanent truce. Without a dramatic shift in negotiations, the deadline appears likely to pass without compliance, potentially triggering renewed instability in Gaza. [Jerusalem Post, Jun 10]

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