Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Hamas to Negotiate Disarmament With Board of Peace on Monday.

What’s Happening

Negotiations over the disarmament of Hamas remain deeply stalled as the June 30 deadline approaches, with the Board of Peace’s lead envoy for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, admitting on April 20 that talks are "not easy" and will require more time. The admission came nine days after an ultimatum for Hamas to accept a proposal on handing over its weapons had expired, underscoring the significant gap between the parties. The Board of Peace, introduced by US President Donald Trump in September to oversee his plan to end the Israel-Hamas war, has been mediating the talks, which tie the group’s disarmament to the entry of a new Palestinian governing body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), alongside expanded humanitarian relief and reconstruction. The core challenge remains that for Hamas to agree to disarm, it would require a political pathway to survival as a non-violent faction within a reformed Palestinian Authority, a condition that has proven difficult to secure. [Times of Israel, Apr 20]

The stakes are high as Hamas prepares to elect its first leader since the death of Yahya Sinwar, with the vote scheduled for late April serving as a critical signal of the group’s future intentions. According to expert Michael Milshtein, the leadership election will telegraph whether Hamas plans to continue fighting Israel over Gaza or shift to a less aggressive stance aimed at buying time to rehabilitate its strength. Meanwhile, local elections in Deir al-Balah on April 25 — the first in 22 years — have raised concerns that Hamas could maintain influence through the ballot box even as it refuses to comply with ceasefire disarmament terms. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer warned that holding elections when "the circumstances are still dicey" risks yielding Hamas victories, further complicating the disarmament process. These developments come as talks between Hamas and the Board of Peace are set to resume on Monday, April 27 in Cairo, with mediators proposing a framework that includes the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups, an Israeli troop withdrawal, and Gaza’s reconstruction. [Times of Israel, Apr 27]

The path to a Hamas agreement to disarm remains fraught with political and logistical hurdles, as outlined in the Board of Peace proposal that ties weapons handover to the establishment of the NCAG, a nonviolent Palestinian leadership body, alongside international oversight. The proposal also requires Hamas to accept a transitional leadership in Gaza under Trump’s ceasefire plan, a condition the group has historically resisted. With the June 30 deadline now just over two months away, the probability of Hamas agreeing to disarm by that date stands at 16%, reflecting widespread skepticism among analysts and observers. The upcoming Cairo talks represent a pivotal moment: if Hamas’s new leader signals a willingness to negotiate in good faith, the disarmament timeline could gain momentum; if not, the prospect of a comprehensive ceasefire and reconstruction plan may collapse. The outcome will also determine whether the Board of Peace can deliver on its mandate to resolve the conflict, or whether the region faces renewed escalation. [Fox News, Apr 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $59K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($59K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.