Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES). Mourinho in final negotiations to become Real manager.

What’s Happening

Real Madrid are in advanced negotiations to reappoint Jose Mourinho as their head coach, with multiple major outlets reporting that a deal is imminent. The BBC confirmed on 12 May 2026 that Mourinho is in "final negotiations" to return to the Bernabéu, 13 years after his first spell at the club ended in 2013. Talks accelerated after Xabi Alonso departed the role in January, with club president Florentino Pérez initiating contact with Mourinho's representatives just two days later. Sky Sports reported on 11 May that the 63-year-old Portuguese manager is "increasingly likely" to take over this summer, despite currently leading Benfica toward an unbeaten league campaign in his native Portugal. [BBC, May 12] [Sky Sports, May 11]

The potential appointment of Jose Mourinho as manager of Real Madrid represents a dramatic shift for a club that has historically prioritized younger, possession-oriented coaches. During his previous tenure from 2010 to 2013, Mourinho won La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Spanish Super Cup, but his tenure was also marked by internal conflicts and an eventual fallout with senior players. The Athletic reported on 8 May that while Mourinho is "happy in Portugal" and Benfica are keen to retain him on fresh terms, he is "understandably open" to a return to a club he still holds in high regard. Spanish radio network COPE stated on 11 May that the announcement of Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid will be made "immediately after the end of the season," signaling that the club views him as the solution to restore winning momentum. [The Athletic, May 8] [Telecom Asia Sport, May 11]

If finalized, the move would mark Mourinho's first return to a top Champions League-contending club since his second stint at Chelsea ended in 2015. The Sporting News noted on 13 May that Real Madrid's decision to bring back a former manager reflects the club's urgency to reclaim domestic and European dominance after a turbulent season under Alonso's successor. The next steps hinge on finalizing Mourinho's release from Benfica, where he signed a two-year contract in 2025, and formalizing terms for a deal that would begin at the start of the 2026-27 season. With an 88% probability assigned to the outcome in current market assessments, the consensus among Spanish and international media is that the announcement is a matter of timing, not uncertainty. [Sporting News, May 13]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 88c YES.