As of October 19, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?” at 13% YES with $54K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 13% probability to: will kim jong un be the next leader out before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 13c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 94c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 89c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 91c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–94c vs 87c). Kimi Macro leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 87c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 100c, a max-price position that signals strong conviction against Kim Jong Un leaving power before 2027 but offers no upside and reflects a defensive or hedging posture. With only one wallet tracked and no YES entries, smart-money signal is weak and directionally skewed toward NO, consistent with the market's dominant NO side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $1.7K | -13% |
Neither side shows profitable positions at current marks, with YES holders underwater at 13c against entries and NO holders flat-to-negative despite the dominant NO side. The absence of profit on either side suggests thin, recent positioning rather than conviction-driven accumulation, leaving the 13c YES price without clear support from profitable longs.
Polymarket prices YES at 13c with $54K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13c | $54K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |