Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Reaches $1 Billion, And It’s The First 2026 Film To Do So.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, released on April 1, 2026, became the first film of the year to cross the $1 billion global box office mark over the weekend of June 6-7. The animated feature has accumulated $438.5 million domestically and roughly $1.3 billion worldwide, leading the 2026 box office by a margin of more than $100 million over its closest competitor. It is now the second-highest-grossing video game film of all time, trailing only The Super Mario Bros. Movie from 2023, and continues to draw theatrical audiences despite already being available on home video. [GameSpot, Jun 8]
The race for top grossing movie of 2026 tightened in mid-June as the Michael Jackson biopic Michael, directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Jaafar Jackson, reached $911.9 million worldwide, surpassing Bohemian Rhapsody to become the highest-grossing music biopic in history. Project Hail Mary, starring Anya Taylor-Joy, sits in third place with $679 million globally, while The Mandalorian and Grogu has underperformed expectations and now trails Solo: A Star Wars Story on the domestic chart. The gap between the Mario title and Michael has narrowed to under $400 million, though the animated film retains a clear lead among contenders for the super mario galaxy movie top grossing movie of 2026 designation. [Pitchfork, Jun 14]
The second half of 2026 will determine whether the super mario galaxy movie top grossing movie of the year status holds, with major releases including holiday tentpoles and end-of-year awards contenders still to debut. The film's theatrical run is expected to taper following its home-video availability, while Michael continues its international rollout with momentum from its biopic record. Historical comparison points to Ne Zha 2, which crossed $2 billion in 2025 driven almost entirely by Chinese box office — a trajectory unmatched by any 2026 release so far. With over six months remaining in the calendar year and no announced wide release projected to clear $1.3 billion, the super mario galaxy movie top grossing movie of 2026 position remains contested but currently held. [SlashFilm, Jun 8]
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