Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). NVIDIA is Up 20% in a Month.

What’s Happening

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) shares have surged approximately 20% over the past month, closing at a record $236 on May 14, 2026, pushing the company’s market capitalization to $5.71 trillion. The rally has been fueled by a series of bullish catalysts, including a price target increase to $350 from Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse and news that the U.S. Commerce Department approved exports of H200 chips to roughly 10 Chinese companies. Despite this upward momentum, the stock has historically fallen in three of the last four earnings reports even when results beat expectations, creating a complex backdrop for the question of whether NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May. [24/7 Wall St., May 14] [TipRanks, May 14]

The upcoming earnings report on May 20, 2026 is the primary event that could determine whether NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May. Investor Anthony Di Pizio has described the current setup as a potential "major upside catalyst," citing increased AI infrastructure spending forecasts from several of Nvidia’s largest data center customers. However, the stock faces a high bar: Polymarket data indicates a 97% probability that Nvidia will beat earnings estimates, leaving little room for an in-line or merely solid report. Additionally, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was notably excluded from the list of executives invited to accompany President Donald Trump on his visit to China this week, a geopolitical factor that could introduce volatility. [TipRanks, May 10] [Seeking Alpha, May 12]

The $192 threshold represents a roughly 19% decline from the current record close of $236, a move that would require a significant negative catalyst. Analysts note that Nvidia’s stock has already notched its third record close of the year on May 11, surpassing the previous high of $216.61 set on April 27. With the earnings report just days away, the key question is whether the stock can sustain its rally or if profit-taking or a disappointing outlook could trigger a sharp pullback. The outcome will depend heavily on the company’s forward guidance and the market’s reaction to the May 20 results. [TipRanks, May 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $69K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($69K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.