Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 91%: Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30. Currently, markets see this as likely (91% YES). Although Disclosure Day had a great opening weekend, Obsession's box office success continues to impress.

What’s Happening

Focus Features' horror thriller Obsession, directed by Curry Barker, has continued to dominate the domestic box office heading into the final stretch of June 2026, maintaining its position as the "obsession" may film with the highest domestic gross on june 30 contender. On Monday, June 8, the film earned roughly $4.2 million in its fourth week of release, edging out Paramount and Miramax's weekend opener Scary Movie, which took $4.1 million. By that point, Obsession had already become Focus Features' highest-grossing release ever at the global box office, with a worldwide cume reported at $229.3 million. [Deadline, Jun 9]

The film's longevity has been historically unusual for the horror genre. On its 25th day in domestic theaters, Obsession grossed approximately $4.2 million, outperforming the Day 25 figures of all-time box office leaders including Star Wars: The Force Awakens (roughly $3.1 million on its 25th day) and Avengers: Endgame. By the weekend of June 13–14, Obsession had also set a new record as the highest-grossing film ever acquired by a studio at a film festival, surpassing the prior benchmark held by The Blair Witch Project. Worldwide gross through that weekend reached $286.4 million. [Forbes, Jun 14]

The release of Steven Spielberg's Disclosure Day on the weekend of June 13 was widely viewed as the principal near-term threat to Obsession's May-release dominance, but Deadline reported the Spielberg title opened to $44 million domestically — the fifth-best opening of Spielberg's filmography, yet insufficient to dislodge Obsession from the top of daily charts. Exhibitor activity reflects the strength of the broader slate: AMC postponed its planned interactive live concert series, citing a crowded summer lineup that includes Obsession, Backrooms, and Scary Movie. With roughly two weeks remaining until the June 30 measurement date and no comparable May-release competitor in active wide release, the "obsession" may film with the highest domestic gross on june 30 outcome trends toward resolution in line with the current cumulative lead. [Polygon, Jun 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 91c YES.