Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). On June 9th, 2026, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, the first publicly available model from its Mythos tier.

What’s Happening

The question of whether OpenAI will have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026 has intensified following Anthropic's release of Claude Fable 5 on June 9, 2026, the first publicly available model from its Mythos tier. The model scored 80.3% on SWE-bench Pro, a benchmark of real software-engineering tasks, and arrived alongside the May 2026 Ramp AI Index showing Anthropic at 34.4% of US business adoption versus OpenAI at 32.3%, drawn from corporate card and invoice data across more than 50,000 US companies. The release reframed the competitive landscape just weeks before the resolution window. [Forbes, Jun 9]

On June 15, 2026, the Trump administration issued an extraordinary order barring foreign access to Anthropic's best AI models after officials discovered it was possible to jailbreak the Fable 5 guardrails. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged as a key official in the negotiations, underscoring Washington's newfound willingness to exert control over the AI industry. The export restrictions, while focused on national security, reinforced Anthropic's perceived frontier status and added regulatory weight to the question of whether OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June, a positioning shift that would have appeared improbable to investors twelve months earlier. [Insurance Journal, Jun 15]

OpenAI is preparing a new AI model and expects to go public within the next year, according to a report published June 10, 2026, with CEO Sam Altman framing the company's AGI work as technology that "changes everything." A separate filing report dated June 9 confirmed the IPO track alongside continued advertising-product development. With roughly two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution, the framing of whether OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June hinges on benchmark performance against Fable 5, the timing of any new OpenAI model release, and third-party evaluations from coding and reasoning benchmarks. Google DeepMind and xAI remain alternative candidates for the top two positions. [The Information, Jun 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.