Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES). The AI boom has been financed and priced by private markets.

What’s Happening

The question of whether OpenAI's valuation hit (high) $900B by June 30 moved into sharper focus this month after the company confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering. The filing, announced on Monday, June 8, came exactly one week after rival Anthropic submitted its own confidential S-1 on June 1, and days before SpaceX was scheduled to begin trading at a $1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI's move accelerates a broader shift in how frontier AI companies are financed, transitioning from private capital rounds to publicly disclosed numbers scrutinized by Wall Street. [TechCrunch, Jun 8]

Anthropic's filing reportedly carried a $965 billion valuation backed by a $47 billion revenue run rate as of late May, setting an explicit benchmark above the $900B threshold for OpenAI's own debut pricing. PitchBook research published on June 5 characterized OpenAI as the most expensive artificial intelligence company in its peer group on a per-unit-of-business-quality basis, citing the April renegotiation of its Microsoft revenue-sharing agreement that capped payments at $38 billion through 2030 and saved an estimated $70 billion to $97 billion. Whether OpenAI's valuation hit (high) $900B inside the June window depends on price discovery still being finalized by underwriters working off these comparables. [Morningstar, Jun 5]

The June 4 Forbes analysis framed the simultaneous public-market entries of OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX as the first real test of whether public investors will absorb the capital intensity of frontier AI — companies expected to spend hundreds of billions on computing infrastructure while growing into trillion-dollar valuations. OpenAI itself is poised to burn $85 billion in 2028 even after doubling sales year-over-year, per Wall Street Journal reporting referenced in the TechCrunch filing coverage. With a confidential S-1 only just submitted and the SEC review process typically running weeks before any public price range is disclosed, the path for OpenAI's valuation hit (high) $900B before June 30 hinges on the speed of pre-IPO secondary marks rather than a completed listing. [Forbes, Jun 4]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.