Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?” at 6% YES with $128K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

What’s Happening

Ukrainian forces have regained control of significant portions of Kupiansk, directly contradicting Russia’s claim from November 21, 2025 that it had seized the entire town. A Ukrainian commander stated on December 12, 2025 that Russian troops have been “completely cut off” from the settlement, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recording a video in front of a Kupiansk sign to underscore the reclaim. This development makes the scenario of a full russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 highly unlikely, as Ukrainian brigades and drone units have established a defensive perimeter around the town’s western districts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces remain isolated in small pockets, with one estimate placing the number of remaining Russian soldiers in Kupiansk at “dozens at most” [Al Jazeera, Dec 12].

The battle for Kupiansk has been a focal point of Russia’s broader offensive to capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces first took the city in February 2022 but lost it in September of that year during Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive. Moscow resumed attempts to retake it in summer 2023, and by late November 2025, Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed a breakthrough. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on December 29, 2025 that Russian offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction continued but did not advance, citing a Russian milblogger affiliated with the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment who acknowledged stalled progress. The ISW’s broader assessment from March 31, 2026 noted that significant Russian gains in the Kupyansk direction are “not imminent nor inevitable,” as forces suffer personnel losses and rely on poorly trained infantry [ISW, Apr 01].

The structural factor determining whether russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 occurs is the attrition rate of Russian assault units versus Ukraine’s defensive depth. Ukrainian military spokespeople have described the situation around Kupiansk as “difficult, but under control,” noting that top brigades and drone units are deployed there. Meanwhile, Russian forces have reportedly seized about 90% more territory in November 2025 than in October across the broader front, but concentrated in southern “Wild Fields” areas rather than the heavily fortified Kupiansk axis. Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on January 19, 2026 that Ukraine is “increasingly looking like the victor” in the battle, with Russian troops reduced to isolated pockets lacking resupply lines. The probability of a complete Russian capture by the December 31 deadline hinges on whether Moscow can redeploy reserves from southern fronts before winter logistics degrade, a scenario analysts consider remote given current casualty rates and equipment shortages [Novaya Gazeta Europe, Jan 19].

Traded on Polymarket — $128K Volume