Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether Silver (SI) will hit a low of $45 by the end of June currently assigns a 6% probability to the event, reflecting overwhelming market conviction that such a decline is unlikely. This sentiment comes amid a severe downturn in precious metals, with silver prices falling to seven-month lows on Wednesday, June 24, 2026, trading at $58.44 after dipping to an intraday low of $58.09. The broader sell-off has been driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates later this year, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Analysts note that silver’s current price is less than half of its all-time high of $121 reached in January, underscoring the magnitude of the recent rout. [Forbes, Jun 24]

The probability that Silver (SI) will hit a low of $45 by end of June remains low despite the metal’s sharp decline, as the current price floor appears to be holding above key technical levels. On Tuesday, June 23, 2026, gold and silver tumbled alongside global tech stocks after rate-hike fears spooked markets, with the U.S.-Iran war that began on February 28 having eroded gold’s traditional safe-haven status. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, reinforced at its June 17-18 policy meeting, has kept pressure on precious metals, with the U.S. dollar testing yearly highs. Spot silver prices were sharply weaker after the close on Thursday, June 18, as traders continued to reprice the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook. [CNBC, Jun 23] [Kitco, Jun 18]

Looking ahead, the path for Silver (SI) to hit a low of $45 by end of June hinges on whether macroeconomic headwinds intensify further. Gold prices plunged 1.75% on June 23 to a daily low of $4,090.93, stalling just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,079.35, a critical technical support zone. Physical premiums for silver have softened, and thin holiday trading on Friday, June 19 saw prices weaken further, with analysts attributing the moves to rate-sensitive flows rather than panic selling. The next catalysts include upcoming U.S. economic data and any shift in Fed rhetoric, which could either accelerate the sell-off or provide a floor for prices. [Sekbernews, Jun 24] [Kitco, Jun 19]

Traded on Polymarket — $197K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $197K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.