Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Mapping the Market: Silver prices may be on the road to recovery | Reuters.

What’s Happening

Silver prices staged their largest single-session move in months on Monday, May 11, jumping more than 7% at the intraday peak as traders unwound bearish positioning built up during the Iran war drawdown. The rally pushed spot silver close to April's high of $83.04, with a three-day surge breaking a downtrend line that had capped the metal since the war-driven slump. Technical analysts at Reuters noted that a sustainable break above the April peak would signal a foothold in a higher range, raising the bar for whether silver (si) hit (low) $60 by end of June remains plausible given current spot levels are roughly 35% above that threshold. [Reuters, May 11]

The reversal follows a difficult stretch for the metal, which tumbled dramatically in January and slumped again at the start of the Iran war before stabilizing in late April. Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC he expects the silver rally to return and projected that both gold and silver could "reach new all-time highs in the not too distant future." TD Securities strategists, cited by Bloomberg on May 7, attributed the broader precious-metals bid to falling oil prices, a softening dollar, and headlines pointing toward a potential US-Iran peace deal. Gold also climbed to its highest level since late April, though it remains below the $5,300 peak hit in early March. [Forbes, May 11]

Macro flows continue to shape the path to June expiry, with the Sherritt International shock on May 7 — shares fell 30% after sweeping US sanctions targeted Cuba's metals and mining sector — adding supply-side noise to industrial-metals pricing. With spot silver trading near $83 and BNP Paribas Fortis flagging upside continuation, the gap between current levels and the $60 downside strike is substantial; whether silver (si) hit (low) $60 by end of June would require a roughly 28% drop within seven weeks, a move historically associated with sharp dollar strength or a sudden de-escalation that collapses safe-haven demand. The next catalyst is the US-Iran negotiation track, which has driven the bulk of intraday volatility since the conflict began. [Kitco, May 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $185K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $185K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.