Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Once plagued by civil war, Syria now sells itself as a safe corridor amid Iran conflict.

What’s Happening

Syria's interim government is positioning the war-ravaged nation as a neutral corridor and alternative oil export route amid the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Surrounded by strategic adversaries Israel and Iran, Damascus has so far managed to stay outside the active theater, aided in part by the U.S. military's withdrawal from Syrian territory before regional fighting erupted. Iranian missiles fired toward Israel have transited Syrian airspace, with debris falling on the town of Ain Terma near Damascus on March 1, 2026, injuring at least four people including three children, according to state agency SANA. [LA Times, May 1]

The question of whether Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027 sits against a backdrop of cracking regional alliances. The UAE, which in 2020 became the first Arab nation in 26 years to normalize ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, has publicly stated the Iran war could reshape its regional alignments, citing disappointment with several of its closest Arab partners. Israeli officials told CNN they see an unprecedented opportunity to deepen ties with Abu Dhabi as the UAE distances itself from traditional allies over their Iran-war posture. A senior Syrian official described the warring parties as "strategic enemies of Syria," referencing both Iran's affiliates and what he called Israel's "aggressive expansionist policy" inside Syrian territory. [CNN, May 1]

Damascus emerged from 14 years of civil war with infrastructure devastation and a transitional government still consolidating internal authority, conditions that historically precede — rather than coincide with — formal diplomatic normalization with Israel. Early speculation that the regional war could accelerate a path for Syria join the Abraham Accords has been tempered by ongoing Israeli strikes inside Syrian territory and the interim government's stated framing of Israel as a strategic adversary. With Bahrain and other Gulf signatories themselves now in Iran's crosshairs, the existing accords framework faces stress-testing before any expansion. The window to January 1, 2027 covers roughly eight months in which Damascus would need to reverse hostile rhetoric, secure domestic political cover, and complete formal recognition — a sequence with no public diplomatic groundwork yet reported. [AP, May 1]

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