Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

What’s Happening

The possibility of Syria joining the Abraham Accords has moved from a theoretical diplomatic talking point to a concrete policy objective, driven by a series of high-level meetings in 2025. On May 14, 2025, US President Donald Trump met Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, explicitly encouraging him to join the agreement and offering to lift all US sanctions as an incentive. Saudi officials, who had lobbied for direct US–Syrian engagement, view al-Sharaa’s shift from his previous role heading Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliate as a potential turning point for regional stability. The meeting followed a report that the UAE had mediated discussions on Syria joining the Abraham Accords, with some Trump administration officials and Gulf states seeing this as a strategic opportunity to counter Iran’s influence over Damascus. [Orfonline, Jun 20]

The diplomatic push has continued through the summer, with concrete proposals and direct engagement. In May 2025, a US security source confirmed that the possibility of Syria joining the Abraham Accords had been presented to al-Sharaa’s government through UAE mediation, with a proposed "Ukraine-style" mineral deal serving as a potential template for economic cooperation. On August 10, 2025, Congressman Abraham Hamadeh made a historic trip to Damascus, meeting with al-Sharaa to discuss the return of Kayla Mueller’s body, a humanitarian corridor to Suwayda, and the need for Syria to attain normalization with Israel and join the Abraham Accords. The White House has separately indicated it expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid "quiet talks," though the interim government has not publicly committed to a timeline. [Harici, May 13] [Hamadeh, Aug 10]

The market currently prices a 92% probability that Syria will not join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting significant structural obstacles. A key condition for Saudi Arabia’s own entry into the accords has been progress on a Palestinian state, a position that complicates any separate Syrian track. Regional analysts note that Israeli leadership under Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued a more aggressive posture, while a potential shift to a more pragmatic leader like Naftali Bennett could reopen broader negotiations, but this remains speculative. The Syrian interim government faces internal pressures, including recent tragic events referenced by Congressman Hamadeh, and has not formally accepted any normalization framework. The next steps hinge on whether the US sanctions relief materializes and whether al-Sharaa can navigate domestic opposition to any deal with Israel, with the 2027 deadline leaving limited room for the complex negotiations required. [Middle East Eye, Aug 18] [The Cradle, Jun 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $164K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 7c YES with $164K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.