As of November 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?” at 10% YES with $52K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: will the democrats win the louisiana senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 10c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 95c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 73c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–95c vs 90c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 90c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 94c, signaling conviction that Democrats will not flip Louisiana's Senate seat in 2026. With no YES entries recorded, smart-money flow is one-sided and offers no counterweight to the dominant NO lean. This concentrated NO positioning supports the current 10c YES price and suggests limited near-term upside for YES unless new information emerges.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $2.7K | -4% |
With YES at 10c, neither side shows any position in profit, indicating entries were made near current levels and the market has yet to move decisively. The absence of profitable YES holders at a 10c price suggests early YES buyers are underwater or absent, leaving little price support from that side. NO entries at 94c imply buyers paid near full value for a likely outcome, capping upside but reinforcing the 90c floor.
Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $52K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |