Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17 gained urgency after the Trump administration on Tuesday, July 7 revoked temporary oil waivers issued to Iran under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed roughly three weeks earlier. The Treasury Department said the revocation — of waivers granted less than three weeks prior — was a direct response to renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the preceding 24 hours. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned that vessels using uncoordinated routes through the strait faced risk, sharpening a standoff that has put the fragile agreement in doubt within days of its signing. [Axios, Jul 07]

On Friday, July 10, Washington escalated its posture by giving Tehran a Saturday deadline to publicly acknowledge that the Strait of Hormuz is open and to commit to halting fire on commercial vessels, arguing Iran had violated the MOU by repeatedly firing on shipping. US officials also described an internal power struggle inside the Iranian regime over implementing the agreement. Yet even as the two sides traded attacks from Tuesday night through Thursday, a US official told Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to negotiations and that technical talks for a lasting peace deal would continue, complicating any read on whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17. [Al Jazeera, Jul 10]

President Donald Trump has publicly said the Iran MoU is "over," while State Department figures reaffirmed a commitment to diplomacy, leaving the framework's status contested. A separate track — the Israel-US MoU — advanced slowly, with Israel expected to return to Washington to accelerate talks as midterm elections loom, though officials remained unsure whether that deal could close in time. Whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17 now hinges on Iran's response to the Hormuz demands and on Trump's next decision. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 13]

Traded on Polymarket — $68K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($68K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 20c YES.