Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Iran Suspended the Islamabad MOU and Cited Self-Defence.

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 sits against a backdrop of active but strained diplomacy on two fronts. In Israel, the government is pushing to accelerate talks with the Trump administration over a future Memorandum of Understanding, with an expected return visit to Washington planned for the week of July 13. According to reporting, the pace has been slow enough that officials are uncertain whether a deal can be reached before US midterm elections reshape political priorities. No party has signaled an intent to walk away from the table, which is consistent with the low probability assigned to a formal US withdrawal. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 13]

On the Iran track, the separate Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding — a 14-point framework — was thrown into doubt when Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi declared on July 18 that Tehran had suspended all of its commitments, framing its military operations as self-defence. That suspension came from the Iranian side, not the United States, and it concerns a different agreement than the US-Iran peace MoU that had earlier halted Trump's military campaign. Whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 would require a distinct, formal American declaration that has not materialized. [Houseofsaud, Jul 18]

Tensions nonetheless remain elevated. US forces reinstated a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports in July 2026, striking a commercial vessel bound for Kharg Island on July 15 and inspecting the Iran-flagged tanker Wen Yao via the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. Iran has called US interference in the Strait of Hormuz a red line. With active US engagement on both the Israeli and Iranian MoUs and no American withdrawal statement issued, the near-term outlook points to continued, if fragile, negotiation rather than a formal US exit by the July 24 deadline. [Seatrade Maritime, Jul 16]

Traded on Polymarket — $72K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($72K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.