Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). US measles cases surpass 2,000 for the 2nd year in a row: CDC.

What’s Happening

The United States has recorded 2,030 confirmed measles cases across 38 states and the District of Columbia so far in 2026, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 5, 2026. This marks the second consecutive year that annual cases have exceeded the 2,000 threshold, following a record-breaking 2,288 cases in 2025—the highest annual total since 1991. Ongoing outbreaks in Florida, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Virginia are driving the current spread, with Florida reporting 154 cases across 15 counties as of late May, though the state went a week without a new case through May 30. The CDC reported just five new cases nationwide between May 22 and May 29, suggesting a potential slowdown, though health officials warn that the trajectory remains uncertain. [ABC News, Jun 05] [NBC News, Jun 05] [WUSF, Jun 05]

The sustained high case counts threaten the United States' measles elimination status, which the country had maintained since 2000. The CDC defines elimination as the absence of continuous disease transmission for 12 months or more, but the repeated large outbreaks in 2025 and 2026 have placed that designation at risk. A key factor complicating public health response has been the spread of misinformation: a study published in JAMA Network Open found that vitamin A poisonings rose nearly 40% between January and March 2025, coinciding with media statements promoting vitamin A as a measles treatment. Meanwhile, a new case was confirmed in Erie County, New York, on June 3, 2026—the first in that county since 2018—linked to travel to a country where measles is endemic, underscoring the role of international travel in reintroducing the virus. [Medical Xpress, Jun 05] [WGRZ, Jun 04]

With the year only half over, the question of whether there will be at least 7,500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 hinges on the trajectory of current outbreaks and the potential for new ones. The current pace of roughly 2,030 cases by early June would need to accelerate significantly to reach that figure, as it would require more than triple the cases recorded in all of 2025. Health officials are closely monitoring vaccination rates, which have declined in some communities, and the continued spread in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Virginia. The CDC has not issued a new forecast for the remainder of the year, but the pattern of large outbreaks in 2025 and the first half

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