Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO). Probability of stalemate in the Strait shoots up.

What’s Happening

The probability that there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 has surged to 68% as of mid-May 2026, reflecting a near-total halt in commercial shipping through the critical waterway. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to merchant vessels since Tuesday, May 5, after direct clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces near the chokepoint. U.S. Central Command reported that American warships were attacked while transiting the strait, prompting retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites. The resulting standoff has grounded all commercial traffic, with insurers refusing to underwrite voyages through the zone. Analysts note that the current disruption is the most severe since the Iran-Iraq War, and the market's 68% YES probability indicates a strong consensus that the strait will remain largely impassable through the end of the month. [Insurance Journal, May 08]

The diplomatic landscape has further dimmed prospects for a quick reopening. On May 11, President Donald Trump declared Iran's conditions for de-escalation—including war reparations, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to sanctions—as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE", effectively killing any near-term negotiated settlement. The following day, Trump paused "Project Freedom," a U.S. naval escort operation that had been launched just two days earlier to shepherd commercial vessels through the strait. This reversal has left shipping companies with no viable military protection, reinforcing the likelihood that there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated its leverage by proposing a governance model to take full control of all seven undersea internet cables passing through the strait, which carry a significant share of global data traffic between Europe, the Gulf, and Asia. [New York Post, May 11] [WION, May 09]

The stakes extend far beyond regional shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz functions as the jugular vein of the global oil and gas supply system, and its closure has already sent tremors through commodity markets and government planning rooms worldwide. Talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding a potential reopening are underway, but analysts describe the situation as a "diplomatic paradox" with no clear off-ramp. The market's 32% NO probability reflects a minority view that either a military breakthrough or a sudden diplomatic accord could restore some traffic by May 31. However, with no commercial transits recorded since May 5 and no escort operation currently active, the baseline expectation remains that there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. The outcome will have direct consequences for global energy prices, supply chain stability, and the broader trajectory of U.S.-Iran hostilities. [Discovery Alert, May 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $113K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 68c YES with $113K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.