Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). The best of the internet, delivered straight to your inbox! US residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data.
As of late May 2026, the probability that Toy Story 5 will become the top grossing movie of 2026 stands at just 5%, according to market data. The film, directed by Andrew Stanton—his first Pixar project since 2016's Finding Dory—is set for a summer release and revolves around the toys' owner Bonnie receiving a tablet named Lilypad that threatens to replace them. However, the animated sequel faces an exceptionally competitive landscape, led by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which has already amassed $964.1 million globally as of mid-May, making it the year's dominant box office performer by a wide margin. [Polygon, May 22]
The low probability reflects the sheer scale of competition Toy Story 5 must overcome to claim the title of top grossing movie of 2026. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is on track to become the first film of the year to cross $1 billion, while other heavy hitters like Avatar: Fire and Ash—the top-grossing movie of 2025—and the upcoming Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, which is projected to earn $160 million globally in its opening Memorial Day weekend, further crowd the market. Additionally, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and a new Spider-Man installment starring Tom Holland and Zendaya are also slated for summer release, creating an unusually dense field of potential blockbusters. [Yahoo, May 17]
Looking ahead, Toy Story 5 will need to deliver an extraordinary performance at the box office to shift the current outlook. The film's success hinges on its ability to draw both nostalgic adult audiences and new younger viewers, a challenge given the crowded summer calendar and the dominance of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which continues to expand its reach through digital streaming and 3D releases on Apple's Vision Pro. With The Mandalorian and Grogu opening strong and Avatar: Fire and Ash still generating revenue, the path for Toy Story 5 to become the top grossing movie of 2026 remains narrow, barring an unexpected cultural phenomenon. [Road to VR, May 21]
Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $246K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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