Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Australian Box Office: ‘Toy Story 5’ Holds No.
"Toy Story 5" continued its theatrical run through early July 2026, climbing to $764 million globally, according to weekend box office tallies. The Pixar sequel held the No. 1 position at the Australian box office for a third consecutive week, adding $6.02 million over the July 2–5 frame to reach $27.91 million in that market alone. Despite the sustained international momentum, the question of whether "Toy Story 5" will end as the top grossing movie of 2026 hinges on how its final cumulative total compares against a crowded field of franchise releases still competing for the annual crown. [Variety, Jul 05]
Over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, Universal and Illumination's "Minions & Monsters" narrowly overtook "Toy Story 5" for the domestic top spot, earning $61.4 million across the five-day period and $39 million over the traditional three-day weekend. That marked a franchise-low debut for the "Despicable Me" spinoff, coming in below analyst expectations, with international sales accounting for 71% of its early gross. The narrow margin — "Minions & Monsters" beat "Toy Story 5" by roughly $36.4 million to a comparable figure — underscored how tightly bunched the animated titles remain in the race to become the top grossing movie of the year. [Los Angeles Times, Jul 05]
By early July, 13 films had crossed the $100 million domestic threshold in 2026, including Steven Spielberg's "Disclosure Day," signaling a competitive year with multiple contenders. The combined "Despicable Me" and "Minions" catalog has grossed over $5.5 billion globally across its history, illustrating the scale of the rivals "Toy Story 5" faces. Whether "Toy Story 5" finishes as the top grossing movie of 2026 will depend on its holdover strength through the remaining summer and holiday windows, as well as the performance of unreleased fourth-quarter tentpoles. For now, its $764 million worldwide total keeps it among the front-runners without a decisive lead. [Chicago Tribune, Jul 06]
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