Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Witkoff and Kushner to head to Pakistan for Iran talks, White House says.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned US delegation to Pakistan on April 25, 2026, scrapping a trip by special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner that was intended to host a second round of peace talks with Iranian representatives. The president cited the 18-hour flight as a primary reason for the cancellation, stating that negotiations would continue via telephone instead. This decision came just hours after the White House had confirmed the delegation’s departure, marking a sudden reversal in the administration’s diplomatic approach to the Iran ceasefire, which is set to expire on April 29, 2026. [CNN, Apr 25]

The cancellation has immediate implications for the political market asking whether Trump will visit Pakistan by May 31, 2026, which currently sits at an 8% probability of a YES outcome. The president’s own remarks—calling the trip a “waste of time” and reiterating that Iran “can call us anytime they want”—underscore a procedural shift away from in-person diplomacy in Islamabad. The US delegation’s trip was originally scheduled to follow a ceasefire extension granted on April 21, 2026 at the request of Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, but the stalled talks have now removed the primary diplomatic rationale for a presidential visit. [New York Post, Apr 25]

Looking ahead, the probability of a Trump visit to Pakistan by May 31 remains low due to the lack of a scheduled diplomatic event and the administration’s stated preference for remote negotiations. The president has signaled he is “highly unlikely” to extend the Iran ceasefire further, and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Without a new round of in-person talks or a formal invitation from Islamabad, the window for a presidential trip is narrowing rapidly. The next procedural milestone will be the ceasefire expiration on April 29, which could either revive diplomatic momentum or lead to renewed military action, further reducing the likelihood of a visit. [Fox News, Apr 21]

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