Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO). Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, the person who is in charge of the entire U.S.

What’s Happening

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s standing within the Trump administration has deteriorated sharply following her early February opposition to renewing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a move President Trump reportedly ignored while pushing Republicans to extend the surveillance authority. According to The Atlantic, Trump believes Gabbard was shielding a subordinate from White House scrutiny, and her position has grown more precarious amid a broader exodus of female Cabinet officials. Three women have left Trump’s second-term Cabinet since January, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 21, making Gabbard one of the most closely watched figures in the administration as speculation mounts over who could be next to depart. [The Atlantic, Apr 25]

The political calculus surrounding whether Tulsi Gabbard will leave the Trump administration before 2027 has intensified after Newsweek reported on April 21 that she and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were trading at equal probability on prediction platforms as the next high-ranking official to exit. Gabbard’s role as DNI places her in charge of the entire U.S. intelligence community, technically superior to Ratcliffe, yet her reported friction with the White House over FISA policy and personnel decisions has fueled internal doubts. The Axios report on April 21 noted that while Trump staffed his second-term Cabinet with more women than his first term, the departures of Bondi, Noem, and Chavez-DeRemer have left only five women remaining in the Cabinet, amplifying scrutiny on Gabbard’s tenure. [Newsweek, Apr 21]

The immediate trigger for renewed speculation came on April 25, when President Trump was evacuated from the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner due to an unspecified security threat, an event that underscored the volatile atmosphere surrounding the administration. With 62% of market participants now betting that Tulsi Gabbard will leave the Trump administration before 2027, the focus is on upcoming procedural milestones, including potential Senate confirmation hearings for a successor and the 2026 midterm election cycle, which could reshape administration priorities. The Fox News report on April 24 highlighted ongoing cultural clashes within the White House, as a transgender lawmaker’s comments about Trump firings drew sharp responses, further complicating the political landscape for remaining female appointees like Gabbard. [Politico, Apr 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($66K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 62c YES.