Will US annex any territory in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will US annex any territory in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US will annex any territory in 2026 has been driven by a series of statements from President Donald Trump targeting Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory. On January 4, 2026, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen summoned the US envoy and said Washington has "no right to annex" Danish territory, urging the administration to "stop the threats." Trump reiterated that the US needs Greenland "for defense." Days later, Representative Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) introduced the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act on January 13, 2026, which would bar federal funds from facilitating any invasion, purchase, or seizure of a NATO ally's territory. [NPR, Jan 4]

The rhetoric follows the administration's military operation in Venezuela, where US forces captured disputed leader Nicolás Maduro in early 2026, an action that amplified concern that threats against other sovereign territories could escalate. Legal scholars have begun mapping the constitutional and international-law questions surrounding whether the US annex any territory in the current climate is even feasible, noting that Article 42.7 TEU and Greenland's status under EU treaties complicate any coercive move against Denmark. Analysts note that formal annexation would require congressional action and would breach multiple NATO and UN commitments, raising steep diplomatic and legal barriers. [Verfassungsblog, Jan 13]

The pattern extended beyond Greenland. On August 16, 2026, Trump threatened to make the Strait of Hormuz a US territory amid ongoing conflict with Iran, a claim legal experts characterized as unenforceable given the strait's status as an international waterway bordered by sovereign states. To date, no territory has been formally annexed, and no legislation authorizing such a step has advanced, while Congress has moved instead to block it. Whether the US annex any territory in 2026 will hinge on whether verbal threats translate into concrete legislative or military action before the year closes, with opposition from Denmark, the EU, and members of Congress remaining firm. [Al Jazeera, Aug 16]

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