Will US annex any territory in 2026?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will US annex any territory in 2026?” at 5% YES with $155K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will US annex any territory in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). 2 Venezuela oil minister to U.S.

What’s Happening

The prospect that the US would annex any territory in 2026 moved from rhetorical flourish to active debate early in the year. On January 3, 2026, US forces conducted a raid in Caracas that removed Venezuela's president, with President Donald Trump stating the US would "run the country" and extract its oil wealth. The following day he revived his interest in Greenland, declaring "We do need Greenland, absolutely," prompting Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to warn that Washington has "no right to annex" the semi-autonomous Danish territory. The exchange underscored how ownership-focused language from the White House collided with allied sovereignty. [Fortune, Jan 04]

Domestic pushback followed quickly. On January 13, 2026, Rep. Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) introduced the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act, legislation designed to cut off federal funding for any military, financial, or political attempt to invade, annex, or purchase the NATO ally's territory. Analysts drew a distinction between strategic access and outright acquisition: a January 20 assessment argued that while Greenland is a "strategic linchpin in the Arctic" for countering Russia and China, formal annexation is neither necessary nor advisable. Whether the US would annex any territory in the year thus hinged less on capability than on legal and diplomatic constraints. [Gomez, Jan 13]

Rhetoric continued through the summer. On August 14, 2026, Trump threatened to make the Strait of Hormuz "a US territory" amid an ongoing conflict with Iran, a claim legal experts described as lacking any basis in international law. Despite the escalating statements on Greenland, Venezuela, and Hormuz, no formal act of annexation had been completed or codified by Congress. The gap between declarative threats and legally binding annexation—which would require treaty action, funding, and would face allied and statutory resistance—explains why the probability that the US will annex any territory in 2026 remains low at 5%. Attention next turns to whether any threat translates into concrete legislative or military steps. [Al Jazeera, Aug 16]

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