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Resolves: Jan 2027 59 days left Volume: $159K

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

NO
95c
YES
5c

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will US annex any territory in 2026?” at 5% YES with $159K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

The US has not annexed new territory since the 1917 purchase of the Virgin Islands, and no active annexation process exists for 2026.

Down from 10% to 5% since 2026-06-23 (-5pp)

What’s Happening

The question of whether the US annex any territory in 2026 has been shaped by a fast-moving diplomatic dispute over Greenland. In January 2026, the Trump administration renewed threats against Denmark's autonomous territory, prompting Rep. Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) to introduce the Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act on January 13, 2026, legislation that would cut off federal funding for any military, financial, or political attempt to seize control of a NATO ally. The bill reflected congressional concern that the administration might pursue acquisition by force or pressure, and it marked an early legislative attempt to constrain executive action on territorial expansion. [Gomez, Jan 13]

The standoff intensified as 2026 began, with Trump having already ordered a military operation in Venezuela and captured its disputed leader Nicolas Maduro before renewing threats against several sovereign territories, including Greenland. European officials openly questioned whether the EU could protect Greenland from the US, and protests against the administration's announced intent to acquire the island were held in Nuuk. The episode placed the broader question of whether the US annex any territory in 2026 at the center of transatlantic relations, with NATO allies watching closely for signs of escalation. [DW, Jan 5]

The dispute was defused on September 18, 2026, when the US and Denmark announced a deal on Greenland's security, which NATO welcomed as giving the US "permanent security control" without a change in sovereignty. Trump subsequently dropped his threat to annex Danish territory in favor of a greater US military role, according to reporting from September 29, 2026. The resolution reduced the near-term likelihood that the US annex any territory in 2026 through the Greenland channel, though the administration's earlier actions in Venezuela and its rhetoric toward other territories kept the broader question open. [BBC News, Sep 18]

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No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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As of November 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $159K in total volume.

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