Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures surged to $101.85 per barrel on April 22, 2026, according to data from Mining.com, bringing the commodity within striking distance of the $105 threshold for the first time in months. The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions after Iran re-imposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, blocking passage for most ships through the waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global crude supply. A ceasefire that had been in place since early April neared expiration, with Iran accusing the United States of "breaches of trust" following an incident involving the USS Spruance firing on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. The price jump pushed WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in April into a more plausible scenario, though the commodity remains below that psychological barrier. [Yahoo Finance, Apr 19]

The Strait of Hormuz disruption has created a supply bottleneck that analysts warn could push prices higher if the blockade persists. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $104.40 per barrel on April 22, according to Mining.com data, while WTI settled at $101.85 after a 3.06% decline that day. The price gap between the two benchmarks reflects differing exposure to the Strait of Hormuz risk, with Brent more directly tied to Middle Eastern flows. The Guardian reported on April 20 that WTI had surged 7.5% to $90.17 late Sunday as markets reacted to the ceasefire breakdown, setting the stage for the subsequent climb above $100. The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in April now hinges on whether supply disruptions intensify or diplomatic efforts restore calm. [Mining.com, Apr 22]

Looking ahead, the key variable is the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the potential for a renewed ceasefire. Iran has vowed to respond to the US naval action, while Washington has not signaled any immediate concessions, leaving the door open for further supply disruptions. With only a few days remaining in April, WTI would need to gain roughly 3.1% from its April 22 close of $101.85 to reach $105. The Guardian noted on April 20 that Tehran accused the US of breaking the ceasefire, vowing retaliation, which could trigger additional price spikes. If the blockade continues or expands, the probability of WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in April increases, but any diplomatic breakthrough could quickly reverse gains. [The Guardian, Apr 20]

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Polymarket prices this at 33c YES with $525K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.