Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO). Oil prices rise more than 2% as Israel moves further into Lebanon.

What’s Happening

WTI crude oil traded at $90.54 on June 7, 2026, down 2.69% on the session, after pulling back from a midweek peak above $95. Brent settled at $93.09, with Murban at $90.68 and WTI Midland at $91.17. The retreat followed a volatile first week of June in which prices spiked on tightening US inventory data before reversing on demand concerns. The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June now hinges on roughly $15 of upside from current levels with three weeks remaining in the contract window. [OilPrice, Jun 07]

Geopolitical risk premium re-entered the market on June 1, 2026, when Israel ordered troops to advance further into Lebanon against Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces, despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks earlier. US crude futures jumped $2.37, or 2.71%, to $89.73 a barrel in early Asian trading on the escalation. Two days later, on June 3, the EIA reported US crude inventories in freefall, pushing WTI up $1.38 to $95.14 and Brent up $1.32 to $97.32. The combination of Middle East escalation and tightening US stocks established the bullish setup that defines current trajectory toward whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June remains in play. [Global Banking & Finance, Jun 01]

Counterweighting the supply narrative, Goldman Sachs warned on June 5, 2026 that global oil demand had declined more than expected, posing two-sided risks to its Q4 2026 Brent forecast of $90 and WTI forecast of $83 per barrel. The bank estimated 4 million to 5 million barrels per day of demand destruction in April, attributing roughly 4% to 5% of the drop to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers. The demand-destruction thesis explains the June 7 pullback to $90.54 and frames the path forward: bulls need either a fresh geopolitical shock or a sharper-than-expected inventory drawdown to clear $105, while continued demand erosion could cap rallies well below that threshold. [Reuters, Jun 05]

Traded on Polymarket — $59K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($59K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 42c YES.