Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Oil prices rise more than 2% as Israel moves further into Lebanon.

What’s Happening

WTI crude futures surged 7.13% to $93.59 per barrel on June 1, 2026 after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded revisions to the pending Iran nuclear deal, reigniting Middle East risk premiums across global energy benchmarks. Brent crude tracked higher in parallel, climbing 6.19% to $96.76, while heating oil jumped 6.39% to $3.711 per gallon. The move came alongside a separate Reuters report that Israel ordered troops to advance further into Lebanon despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks ago, with U.S. crude futures rising 2.71% to $89.73 in early Monday trading before the larger Iran-driven leg higher. The geopolitical bid pushed WTI within roughly $21 of the $115 threshold contemplated by this market. [OilPrice, Jun 01]

Demand-side signals have moved sharply in the opposite direction. Goldman Sachs said in a note on June 5 that global oil demand has declined more than expected, posing two-sided risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude price forecast of $90 per barrel and WTI forecast of $83 per barrel. The bank estimated 4 million to 5 million barrels per day of global oil demand destruction in April, attributing the contraction to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, which appeared to have reduced global demand by 4% to 5%. Goldman's central WTI forecast sits roughly $32 below the level required for the question of whether wti crude oil (wti) hit (high) $115 in june to resolve YES, framing the gap between current spot prices and the contract's upper bound. [Reuters, Jun 05]

Competing supply narratives complicate the path forward for whether wti crude oil (wti) hit (high) $115 in june becomes reality. At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Exxon executive Chapman warned that dated Brent could shoot up to $150 to $160 on shrinking inventories, lifting energy equity proxies including United States Oil Fund (USO) by more than 2% and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) by similar magnitudes on June 1. Trump simultaneously stated that Iran "really wants to make a deal," introducing a diplomatic offset to the bullish supply thesis. With WTI trading in the low-to-mid $90s heading into mid-June, a move to $115 would require a roughly 23% single-month rally — historically associated with acute supply shocks such as a Strait of Hormuz re-closure or a direct strike on production infrastructure. [Yahoo Finance, Jun 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.