Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June. Currently, markets are divided (69% YES, 31% NO). Oil falls to near two-month lows as Trump calls off threatened strikes on Iran.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have fallen sharply in early June 2026, approaching a critical threshold that has drawn significant market attention: whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in June. On June 12, oil prices dropped over 3% to near two-month lows after U.S. President Donald Trump called off threatened strikes on Iran, reducing fears of an immediate escalation in the Gulf. A Western source told Reuters that a memorandum between the United States and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, further easing supply disruption premiums. This geopolitical de-escalation has accelerated a broader selloff, with WTI sliding approximately 18% from its May peak, according to industry data, bringing the benchmark closer to the $75 level that traders are now watching as a key support and psychological barrier. [Kitco, Jun 12]

The rapid decline in crude prices comes despite persistent draws in U.S. inventories. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories kept sinking through early June, yet prices have failed to find support from tightening physical supply. Analysts attribute this disconnect to mounting demand fears, as economic headwinds in major consuming regions overshadow supply constraints. By June 10, WTI had dropped nearly 18% from its May peak, retreating from levels above $100 per barrel to the mid-$80 range, according to Fibre2Fashion. The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in June has become a focal point for traders, as a breach of that level would represent a decline of roughly 25% from the recent highs and signal a potential shift in the market's medium-term trajectory. [Fibre2Fashion, Jun 10]

Looking ahead, market participants are weighing several factors that could determine whether WTI tests the $75 level before the end of June. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced on June 11 plans to offer 24/7 trading in new, smaller WTI crude oil futures, a structural change that could increase liquidity and volatility in the contract. Meanwhile, a report from OilPrice.com warned that the oil market could be "weeks from a breaking point," citing the widening gap between falling spot prices and the potential for supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As of June 12, WTI was trading at $84.88 per barrel, down 3.23% on the day, leaving a gap of roughly $10 to the $75 target. The outcome of the U.S.-Iran memorandum and upcoming demand data from China and Europe will be critical in determining whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $75 in June becomes a reality. [OilPrice.com, Jun 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $391K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 69c YES with $391K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.