Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). | WTI Crude •11 mins | 69.47 | -1.28 | -1.81% |.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate crude entered July trading near $69.47 a barrel, down 1.81% on the session, after a broadly weak second quarter. Whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $60 in July depends on a market that has already staged one of its sharpest retreats in years. Prices slid to roughly $69.23 on June 27 before stabilizing, with Brent trading around $72.97 and the WTI Midland grade near $69.79. The pullback leaves the benchmark roughly $9 above the $60 threshold, requiring a further double-digit percentage decline within the month for the level to be touched. [OilPrice, Jun 30]

The broader context is a quarter that marked oil's biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic, driven by softening demand signals and ample supply. Analysts remain split on direction: ING argued on June 29 that prices had "overshot to the downside," implying limited room for further declines, while a separate scenario warned that a supply crunch or renewed Iran flows could push crude sharply lower, with one outlook citing a path back below $40 a barrel. The question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $60 in July sits squarely between these competing views on supply balances. [OilPrice, Jun 29]

Geopolitical risk remains the key swing factor, with markets bracing for a summer of Hormuz volatility around the strait that carries roughly a fifth of global oil flows. Any disruption there would tighten supply and push prices higher, working against a move toward $60. Conversely, easing tensions and steady production increases would reinforce the downtrend. Heavier grades already trade well below the benchmark, with Western Canadian Select near $57–58, underscoring how discounted barrels can pressure sentiment. For WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $60 in July, traders will watch weekly inventory data, OPEC+ output signals, and Middle East headlines through the end of the month. [OilPrice, Jun 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $78K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($78K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 28c YES.