Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). WTI crude oil prices in July 2026.

What’s Happening

Whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July has hinged on a sharp mid-month reversal in energy markets. On July 15, 2026, front-month WTI settled at $79.51, with WTI Midland quoted near $80.09, as ample supply and softening diesel demand weighed on prices. That relative calm was upended days later when geopolitical risk returned to the forefront, pushing benchmark crude back above the $80 threshold and complicating the path for any sustained move to the downside. [OilPrice, Jul 15]

The primary catalyst was an escalation in the Middle East. Following a ninth consecutive night of US airstrikes, Iran launched retaliatory attacks and moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil. The closure drove a surge in volatility, lifting WTI to $82.45 by July 20 and raising the odds of crude reaching $90 by month-end to 46% YES. Adding to supply concerns, Chevron temporarily halted operations at its Petronius facility in the US Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Bertha approached, though other Gulf sites remained unaffected. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 20]

By July 21, prices partially reversed as renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Iran emerged, with WTI easing 0.90% to $81.74 and Brent slipping to $88.24. The question of whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July now depends on whether prices retreat toward that level as tensions cool, or hold higher on persistent supply fears. With the collapse of the US-Iran deal keeping markets exposed to further shocks, traders are watching Hormuz shipping flows, Gulf weather disruptions, and any de-escalation signals as the decisive factors into month-end. [OilPrice, Jul 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 36c YES.