Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). Dow Opens Up After Apple Earnings Beat Expectations.

What’s Happening

As of early May, prediction market participants assign a 28% probability to the event that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May, implying a 72% chance prices will remain above that threshold. This assessment comes amid a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk following the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent WTI prices above $98 in March. While prices have since retreated from those peaks, they remain near $100 per barrel, well above the $80 level in question. The market's low probability for a drop to $80 reflects persistent supply tightness, with Goldman Sachs recently raising its Q4 WTI forecast to $83 per barrel on lower Middle Eastern output. [Reuters, Apr 26]

The 72% NO consensus on WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May is reinforced by ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations. On April 28, oil prices edged higher as traders weighed Iran's offer regarding the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump's next moves, with analysts noting that even an immediate ceasefire would take months to restore normal market conditions. Separately, Kalshi traders on May 1 priced in a more than 50% chance that WTI would exceed $125 per barrel this year, far above the current closing high of $113 from April 7. These elevated long-term expectations suggest traders see structural supply constraints persisting, making a sharp decline to $80 in May appear unlikely. [CNBC, May 01]

Looking ahead, the key catalyst that could shift the probability of WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May would be a rapid de-escalation of the Iran conflict and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of April 28, peace talks were stalling, with oil jumping more than 2% on the news. The Politico report from April 28 noted that while WTI at $100 is well below the $150-$200 forecasts some analysts had predicted, it remains $30 higher than pre-conflict levels. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq starting May at fresh record highs and strong earnings season supporting risk appetite, the macroeconomic environment does not currently signal the kind of demand destruction that would push crude below $80. [Politico, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $112K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 28c YES with $112K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.