Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). July 10 (Reuters) - U.S.

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate crude was trading around $70 to $74 a barrel in early-to-mid July 2026, leaving the contract far below the threshold in the question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in July. U.S. oil prices have tumbled nearly 40% from their May extremes, a slide that has also pulled down gasoline costs. On July 7, WTI settled near $72.38, up 2.75% on the day, before edging to roughly $74.56 by July 8. Technical analysts flagged "unfinished business" on the charts in the form of two unfilled price gaps, one from May 19-20 and another from June 12-15, which could support a move higher toward the June 12 close near $84. [Kitco, Jul 10]

Supply-side developments have weighed against a sharp rally. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that global oil production would return to pre-Iran conflict levels by the end of 2026, despite earlier disruptions across Middle Eastern output and the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ has already agreed to a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day, adding further barrels to a market that is rebuilding spare capacity. That combination of recovering supply and easing geopolitical risk premium makes the roughly 40%-plus jump required for WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in July a steep climb within the remaining days of the month. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 8]

Diplomatic activity added another supply-oriented signal. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was set to visit Washington on July 13, 2026, to meet President Donald Trump and sign oil and gas agreements, including expanded deals involving Chevron's operations in Basra and U.S. involvement in the Akkas gas field. Analysts nonetheless cautioned that the two open chart gaps leave room for renewed volatility, meaning the next price spike "could come sooner than traders think" even as fundamentals point lower. For now, with WTI anchored in the low $70s, a surge past $105 before month-end would require a rapid, unexpected supply shock rather than a continuation of current trends. [OilPrice, Jul 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $82K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($82K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.