Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

What’s Happening

Oil markets entered September 2026 on a firmer footing after renewed friction between the United States and Iran revived fears of supply disruption across the world's largest crude-producing region. On September 1, US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 83 cents (1%) to $86.59 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 56 cents (0.6%) to $91.05 per barrel. With WTI trading in the mid-$80s, the question of whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in September would require a rally of roughly $18, or about 21%, within a single month — a move historically associated with acute geopolitical shocks rather than gradual demand-driven gains. [Top1markets, Sep 01]

The $105 threshold is not without precedent. On May 5, 2026, WTI briefly settled back above $105 per barrel after reports that Iran had struck oil and gas infrastructure and cargo vessels near Dubai, UAE, an event the UAE called a "dangerous escalation." Earlier, on May 22, 2026, UBS raised its Brent and WTI forecasts, projecting crude could climb toward $105 so long as Strait of Hormuz shipping remained restricted, citing supply disruptions overriding weaker demand. Whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in September materializes therefore hinges largely on the trajectory of Middle East tensions. [Seeking Alpha, May 22]

The macro stakes extend beyond energy. Analysts have noted that a move to $105 could pressure the Federal Reserve to pause in September to assess inflationary spillover, with Brent near $96 already lifting gasoline prices. Absent a fresh escalation, current pricing near $86 leaves the $105 level a substantial reach, and whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (high) $105 in September will depend on whether US-Iran frictions deepen into direct supply outages or ease. Traders continue watching Hormuz shipping flows and OPEC+ output signals as the decisive variables. [Buttondown, Jul 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $68K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($68K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 22c YES.