Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Among the quickest oil price bubbles to pop was in 2013.

What’s Happening

Trading for the August WTI crude oil contract has been volatile, with prices recently recovering to near $85 per barrel following fresh US airstrikes on Iran that revived concerns over supply disruptions in West Asia. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude futures for August delivery climbed by Rs 110, or 1.36 per cent, to Rs 8,224 per barrel on July 30, tracking gains in global benchmarks. Analysts note that $80 has become an important support area, and a sustained hold above it could allow WTI to retest $90, while a move below would signal the latest rally is losing strength. The market is currently pricing an 18% probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August, with the vast majority of traders expecting prices to remain below that distant level [Rediff Moneynews, Jul 30].

The path toward the $110 threshold for WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August remains steep, though historical precedent shows such spikes are possible under geopolitical stress. In September 2013, oil prices reached $110 per barrel as threats of US strikes in Syria drove markets to fear supply shocks across the Middle East, even though Syria was not a major exporter. That bubble popped quickly, as did most other surges above $100 in the past decade. Current tensions with Iran are more significant given the country's role in the Strait of Hormuz, but OPEC's June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd, and the group plans to boost output by 188,000 bpd in August, which could cap upside momentum [WBBH, Mar 10].

Looking ahead, the key question is whether supply disruptions escalate enough to justify a move toward $110. Brent crude recently topped $92 while WTI traded near $85 as Iran tensions rose, but shipping continues through the region, including a Qatari LNG tanker that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Inventories are tightening, yet the current price action does not confirm a move toward the much higher zone near $110. Traders will watch whether the US airstrikes on Iran expand into a broader conflict, and whether OPEC's planned August output increase materializes despite ongoing war-related curtailments. The 82% probability assigned to WTI staying below $110 reflects the market's view that current fundamentals do not support a spike of that magnitude without a major supply shock [Cryptorank, Jul 30].

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.